A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
